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Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice

Department of Management in the College of Business at the University of Texas at Tyler

Kevin J. Shanahan

University of Texas at Tyler

Numerous approaches to scenario planning exist. In fact, as a discipline that has grown more in practice than in any other domain, much about the process is not fully understood.This has led to extreme variety in method and process for conducting scenario projects.The authors begin the task of investigating the elements that appear common to multiple models and processes with intent of aggregating these elements toward a best practice approach. In this article, the authors present and describe several prominent scenario planning models in detail, highlighting the strengths and areas for improvement in each.They then discuss opportunities for solidifying best practices in terms of a sound approach to scenario planning in addition to offering the basis of a unifying model for moving the study of scenario planning forward. Conclusions and suggestions are provided for organizational decision makers and researchers.

Key Words: scenario planning models • integrated scenario planning model • best practice

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